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Palin was finished as a national candidate in the last election and i just hope she goes away. By the 2012 election i could easily see many of the important independent voters souring on Obama/Democrats in Congress as they see just how liberal of an agenda they push through, but even with that it will take a very good candidate to have any chance to beat Obama and the last thing Republicans need is Palin hanging around.

As for Doyle, i'd love for him to join the Peace Corps ASAP.

Backupcatchers wrote:

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By the 2012 election i could easily see many of the important independent voters souring on Obama/Democrats in Congress as they see just how liberal of an agenda they push through,

If by 2012 the economy is back on track nobody will give a damn how far left the agenda is. In fact it would be reason to believe the liberal agenda is the right choice. The only people who really care about how far left the agenda is are far right conservatives. The rest of us just want a well run, functioning government. That was the very thing the conservatives failed to do and why they are no longer in power.

Obviously if things are going well, Obama and the Democrats in Congress will also do well in the elections. That's a no brainer. If though Obama and Democrats in Congress keep doing what they are doing and then add on other legislation like cap and trade, i don't think things will be going well for the economy and thus they'll get blamed given they have all the power. Hell, i hope i'm completely wrong on that front because i don't give a shit about the Republican party beyond i just find them in general to be a slightly less worse alternative. The fate of Republicans gaining back some power lies almost entirely in the hands of Democrats running things right now.

Rasmussen just came out with some new polling, a few things caught my eye

Just 27% of voters nationwide favor passage of a second economic stimulus package. Sixty percent (60%) are opposed.

Fifty-four percent (54%) say the average Democrat in Congress is more liberal than they are, while 36% believe the average Republican congressman is more conservative.

Overall, 52% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance so far. That, too, is a new low for the President. Forty-seen percent (47%) now disapprove.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Americans say they are not willing to pay more in taxes and utility costs to generate cleaner energy and fight global warming/want cap and trade

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 41% would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate while 39% would choose the Democratic candidate


No question it's to early to read to much into polls now with elections in 2010 and 2012 still pretty far away. That said, i do think numbers like these do have some meaning. Basically, i see it as many independent voters are becoming more and more leery of the agenda Obama and the Democrats in Congress has passed through and are talking about passing through. That initial rope they gave to Obama/Democrats is tightening. The more the public hears about cap and trade the more that the public is turning against it. Now Biden drops hints of a second stimulus, that won't fly well.

So yea, you're 100% correct that the large percentage of independent voters who are vital in elections don't care much about either party, but many of those voters are very fickle and don't have deep seeded beliefs. That's how some of these folks could vote for a guy like Bush in one election and Obama in the next even though the two guys believe in almost nothing similar. If though that trillion dollar stimulus ends up doing little to improve the economy and cap and trade passes which leads to higher gas prices, energy bills, higher prices from many other things that use energy, and some job losses to boot, Democrats will get blamed. If all the borrowing and printing of money leads to inflation as some economists predict, Democrats will catch most of the blame. There is only one other party in place to reap the benefits.

Time will tell if Obama/Democrats in Congress are doing things that will make the economy get back in strong shape. I don't believe their overall approach will prove to be good for making an economy thrive, but i honestly hope i'm wrong because if Obama/Democrats in Congress are wrong about how they are implementing things, the results to the country will be very bad.

Fatter than Joey wrote:

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Rasmussen is really not a good source for independent data -- he definitely is a right-leaning source.

Hey, i fully understand that polling can be influenced by a variety of factors from who does the poll or how exactly questions are phrased, especially when you consider that a bulk of the population is not deeply interested in politics so they often are only partially at best informed on many issues. I remember awhile ago watching something on a show talking about polling. They showed things like how the same question could be asked to the same people on an issue, just tweaking the way the question is phrased and the results would end up pretty different.

Take cap and trade. Ask say a random 5,000 citizens if they think it would be good for the government to put regulations on energy so that it reduces pollution and you'll almost for sure get more of those folks to say yes. Ask them instead though if the government should put regulations on energy use that will raise costs to them and could make any home seller to be forced to retrofit their home to whatever standards the government chooses before it can be sold, many of those same people with answer different. You could do the same on so many issues.

That said, most people i know either family or friends wise either voted for Obama or weren't strongly against him winning and thus were willing to give him a chance. When politics have come up though, i'm hearing many of those people getting increasingly leery of what he's along with Democrats in Congress are doing and/or thinking of doing. About 10 days ago i was at a very large family gathering for my grandmas 90th birthday and my family isn't exactly full of Rush Limbaugh dittoheads. When politics came up, i didn't hear much of any we love what Obama and the Democrats are doing. Most polls i've seen seem to indicate similar things. I'm not trying to imply that there is this big groundswell among independents thinking man i can't wait to get Republicans back into power. Just that outside of the public still liking Obama a lot personally and the image he projects to the world compared to Bush, i'm not seeing much love for things Obama/Democrats are doing domestically and that apprehension is only growing. Obviously there is plenty of time left for the public to sour even more or do the opposite if things turn around quite a bit economically.